Growth Market Global healthcare market to show €3-trillion sales increase by 2020
Technological progress, an ageing society and rising prosperity in emerging countries means a $4-trillion (€3-trillion) rise in sales in the global healthcare market by 2020, according to a long-term forecast by management consultants Bain & Company.
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The Bain forecast sees the rising demand for medical treatments, therapies and other healthcare services as one of eight structural trends that, by 2020, will lead to a 40% rise in global gross domestic product (GDP), to $90 trillion (€69 trillion).
Worldwide growth continuing
Public coffers are empty, health insurance contributions are high and prospects for new blockbuster medications are low. Nevertheless, growth in the global healthcare market continues apace. By 2020, the Bain findings suggest, sales should increase by 66%, or $4 trillion, to $10 trillion (€7.6 trillion). Half of this growth will take place in industrial nations and half in emerging and developing countries.
With average annual growth rates as high as 15%, markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America may be developing more dynamically, but that doesn’t change the fact of the West’s dominance. For example, per capita healthcare expenditure in the USA will grow from $8,400 in 2010 to $12,300 in 2020 (from €6,400 to €9,400). In the BRIC states during the same period, it will increase from $200 to $500 (from €153 to €382), and in developing countries the rise will be from $100 to $400 (from €76 to €305).
This difference can only partially be traced to the existing prosperity gap. “In markets like China, the healthcare offering is not yet able to keep pace with the booming demand,” says Dr. Norbert Hültenschmidt, partner at Bain & Company and head of its worldwide healthcare practice group.
Increasing expenditure in industrial states
An additional central factor in the global upturn in the healthcare market is the unaltered growth of expenditures in the industrial states—this despite empty public treasuries. In view of the financial neediness of the public sector, extensive adjustments in the industrial states’ healthcare sector will be required in coming years.
“In the years to come, we are going to see more changes in healthcare than ever before,” declares Bain expert Hültenschmidt. For example, integrated treatment systems and patient files that are kept constantly up to date will prevent costly duplication of examinations and dramatically improve the system’s overall efficiency. In addition, a strict cost-benefit mode of thinking at hospitals, physician’s practices and insurers is taking hold.
“In future,” concludes Hültenschmidt, “the concern will be not only the best possible treatment, but the best possible treatment at the best possible cost.”
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